Three women who fled Nagorno-Karabakh and found shelter in an emergency accommodation near Yerevan, the capital of Armenia. October 6, 2023. —Imago / Alamy Stock Photo
On September 19, 2023, following a nine-month blockade and a military offensive by Azerbaijan, ethnic Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountain enclave in Azerbaijan, packed up everything they could carry and began to pour into Armenia. Those who fled feared worsening attacks, a deepening humanitarian crisis, and concerns that Nagorno-Karabakh would no longer be a safe place for ethnic Armenians. Within two weeks, more than 100,000 ethnic Armenians—nearly the entire population of Nagorno-Karabakh—had fled.
The flight was chaotic, with long lines of cars slowly making their way. Some families fleeing from more rural areas had inadequate food and water for the long and halting journey. Sixty-nine people were reported to have died during the exodus. Some families, including children, became separated during the chaos. The few ethnic Armenians that remained behind—unwilling or unable to leave Nagorno-Karabakh—included particularly vulnerable members of the community: elderly people and persons with disabilities or chronic illnesses.
A year later, those who fled and those who remain face an uncertain future, given serious security concerns for ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh and insufficient funding to support refugees in Armenia.
Background
Last year’s flight of ethnic Armenians out of Nagorno-Karabakh followed multiple previous outbreaks of hostilities that took place from 1991 to 1994 and from 2020 until the present. In 1993, following intense fighting, Armenia took control of the region. After a Russia-brokered ceasefire in 1994, Nagorno-Karabakh established a self-proclaimed government and began operating with de facto independence. However, it continued to rely heavily on close political, economic, and military ties with Armenia. Following the second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020, Azerbaijan took control of much of Nagorno-Karabakh.
On December 12, 2022, Azerbaijan began a nine-month blockade of the Lachin corridor, a transit route connecting Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia, that resulted in abrupt supply shortages as 90 percent of Nagorno-Karabakh’s food was imported from Armenia. On February 22, 2023, the International Court of Justice (ICJ), which is currently considering the case Armenia v. Azerbaijan, ordered Azerbaijan to “take all measures at its disposal to ensure unimpeded movement of persons, vehicles, and cargo along the Lachin Corridor in both directions.” By mid-June 2023, Azerbaijan had blocked the passage of all food and non-medical items that had, until that point, been delivered by Russian peacekeepers and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), respectively. After July 7, 2023, the ICRC was also unable to deliver medical supplies to the region. In August, the ICRC pleaded with decision-makers to allow humanitarian deliveries to resume.
Amidst a deepening humanitarian crisis, residents of Nagorno-Karabakh’s sense of fear grew as Azerbaijan launched the military offensive on September 19, 2023, leading to the surrender of the region’s de facto authorities a day later. The sudden re-opening of the Lachin corridor, as determined by the Council of Europe’s Commissioner for Human Rights following interviews with those who fled, “led them to feel that in order to secure their existence and future, they had no choice but to leave the region and to do so immediately.”
Developments in the Past Year
In November 2023, the ICJ ruled that Azerbaijan must allow refugees to return if they so desire. A Freedom House-led Fact-Finding Mission cited satellite imagery showing the destruction of Armenian cemeteries, churches, and residential areas in Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia has claimed in its submissions to the ICJ that Azerbaijan has “completed” the ethnic cleansing of Nagorno-Karabakh and is “erasing all traces of ethnic Armenians’ presence” in the contested territory. Azerbaijan refutes these allegations, maintaining that it will ensure the safety and security of all residents, regardless of national or ethnic origin, and denies allegations that ethnic Armenians were forced to leave Nagorno-Karabakh.
Azerbaijan has suppressed independent media and detained and jailed journalists and activists critical of Azerbaijan’s policy toward Nagorno-Karabakh. This suppression of the press has left little independent information about if and how the rights of the few ethnic Armenians who remain are being protected.
In the year that has elapsed, few, if any, of the residents of Nagorno-Karabakh have returned. Today, one in every 30 people now living in Armenia is a refugee from Nagorno-Karabakh. Of the over 100,000 refugees, approximately 30,000 are children, and approximately 18,000 are people aged over 65. Integration has been challenging. According to the International Crisis Group, Armenia “lacks funding and a long-term plan, leaving the displaced people exposed and facing an uncertain future.”
A Way Forward
Mired in active conflicts and humanitarian disasters, the world has largely turned away from the situation of the refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh. The refugees, now eking out a life in Armenia, need greater humanitarian support than Armenia alone can provide, including dedicated support to children and persons with disabilities. Armenian civil society organizations providing services to refugees require increased training and resources, which the international community can provide.
The international community should redouble efforts to ensure that Azerbaijan takes the necessary steps to facilitate the right to return, whether they wish to return permanently or for short visits to make decisions concerning property, bank accounts, and pensions; to collect belongings, or to visit gravesites. For those who choose not to return, their property should be protected from harm. In the event that property is appropriated, those who fled should be properly compensated by Azerbaijan.
Allegations of ethnic cleansing, including the commission of war crimes and crimes against humanity, require properly funded investigations in line with international best practices. This will provide a foundation for justice, informed by the priorities of refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh. Justice could include not only a meaningful right to return but also concrete guarantees by the Azerbaijan government that it will protect the ability of ethnic Armenians living in or returning to Nagorno-Karabakh to exercise their civil, political, religious, and cultural rights without discrimination.